Daily Forex Technical Strategy

01.10.2019

EUR/USD – Downtrend remains intact


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  • The pair has staged the expected push down to hit the downside targets/supports of 1.09550 and 1.0925 as per highlighted in our previous report (click here for a recap). It also broke below the previous 03 Sep 2019 swing low area of 1.0925 that has further cemented the on-going major downtrend in place since 24 Sep 2018.
  • Maintain bearish bias in any bounces below 1.0950 key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential push down to target the next supports at 1.0860 and 1.0820 (lower boundary of a medium-term descending channel from 06 Aug 2019 high & a Fibonacci expansion cluster).
  • However, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.0950 negates the bearish tone for a corrective up move to retest 1.1000 (the pull-back resistance of the former ascending range consolidation from 03 Sep 2019 low) before another downleg materialises.
  • GBP/USD – Further downside pressure


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  • The pair has staged the expected bearish breakdown from the minor “Ascending Wedge” configuration after a reaction right at the predefined 1.2570/85 key pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous report. It has drifted down and met the short-term downside target/support of 1.2290.
  • Elements remain negative; we maintain the bearish bias with a key short-term pivotal resistance now at 1.2345 for a further potential push down to target the next supports at 1.2210/2170 (minor congestion area & 2.618 Fibonacci expansion of the recent decline from 20 Sep high to 23 Sep low projected from 24 Sep 2019 high). However, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.2345 negates the bearish tone for a corrective rebound towards 1.2420.
  • USD/JPY – Bulls rear its horns again


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  • After a drop of 154 pips from its high of 108.47 on 19 Sep to 25 Sep 2019 low of 106.97, the   pair has managed to stage a recovery right at a minor ascending channel support in place since 26 Aug 2019 low.
  • Elements have turned positive where the “residual push up scenario of a corrective rebound phase” is in play again. Bullish bias now above 107.70 short-term pivotal support for a residual push up to target 109.00 and 109.30/50 major resistance before the risk of a bearish reversal sets in.
  • However, a break with an hourly close below 107.70 negates the bearish tone a for slide back to retest 107.00.
  • AUD/USD – Minor consolidation before new drop as RBA looms


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  • The pair has drifted lower as expected and hit the short-term downside target/support of 0.6760/6740 as per highlighted in our previous report.
  • It has printed a current intraday low of 0.6729 in today’s Asian session (at this time of the writing) as RBA’s decision looms. Right now, it has started to evolve into a minor “Descending Triangle” configuration; a bearish continuation pattern with a resistance at 0.6765. Maintain bearish bias in any bounces below tightened key short-term pivotal resistance at 0.6800 for a potential bearish breakdown to retest the 0.6690/6670 range support in place since 07 Aug 2019 and a break below it sees a further decline towards 0.6620 next (1.382 Fibonacci expansion of the on-going decline from 12 Sep 2019 high & close to the major descending channel support from 03 Dec 2018).
  • However, a clearance with an hourly close above 0.6800 invalidates the bearish scenario for a corrective rebound to retest the 12 Sep 2019 swing high area of 0.6890.
  • Charts are from eSignal

    Original from: www.forex.com

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