EUR/USD drops below 1.1300 post-US CPI

  • The pair comes under further pressure below the 1.1300 handle.
  • The greenback pares losses and advance to 96.80/85 on CPI.
  • US Core CPI rose above estimates 2.2% YoY in January.
  • Further downside pressure is now hitting the single currency and is dragging EUR/USD to fresh lows in sub-1.1300 region. EUR/USD weaker post-CPI Spot lost extra momentum after US inflation figures came in above expectations during last month. In fact, consumer prices tracked by the headline CPI came in flat inter-month and rose 1.6% from a year earlier. Additionally, consumer prices stripping food and energy costs rose at a monthly 0.2% and 2.2% over the last twelve months. The pair is thus fading further the earlier spike to fresh tops in the 1.1330 region always on the back of rising hopes over a positive outcome from the ongoing US-China trade negotiations. What to look for around EUR/USD Both the ECB and European Commission have revised lower their projections for economic growth and inflation in the bloc, acknowledging at the same time that the ongoing slowdown could be longer than initially estimated. Additionally, political concerns remain well and sound following the recent Italy-France dispute with the ‘yellow-vests’ in centre stage ahead of the key EU parliamentary elections in May. Looking at the ECB, and following the current context, market participants seem to have pushed back the probable timing of the start of the tightening cycle by the central bank. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is losing 0.23% at 1.1298 and a break below 1.1257 (2019 low Feb.12) would target 1.1215 (2018 low Nov.12) en route to 1.1118 (monthly low Jun.20 2017). On the other hand, the next up barrier is located at 1.1356 (23.6% Fibo of the September-November drop) seconded by 1.1386 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.1416 (100-day SMA).

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