AUD/USD clings to RBA-led strong gains to 4-day high

The AUD/USD pair held on to RBA status-quo-led strong gains and is now consolidating its up-move at 4-day high.

Currently trading above mid-0.7600s, the pair extended its recovery momentum from the vicinity of 100-day SMA support for the third straight day after RBA kept its key benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.5%. The accompanying policy statement revealed central bank's neutral stance and dashed hopes of further easing in the immediate near-future. 

Meanwhile, better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing PMIs for the month of October is also supporting the bid tone around the major. Official Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2, up from 50.4 recorded in September and expected, while Markit manufacturing PMI also surpassed expectations and came-in at 51.2. Being Australia's largest trading partner and biggest consumer of commodities, Chinese economic data derives demand for commodity-linked currencies, including Aussie. 

Tuesday's market attention would remain on PMI prints and hence, the scheduled release of ISM manufacturing PMI from the US would now be looked upon for fresh impetus during early NA session. Investors this week, however, will focus on Wednesday's FOMC decision and US monthly jobs report (NFP) in order to gain further clarity over the timing of next Fed rate-hike action.

Technical levels to watch

Immediate upside resistance is pegged at 0.7681 (Oct. 3 high) above which the pair seems all set to reclaim 0.7700 handle and aim towards 0.7709 resistance (Oct. 26 high). On the flip side, 0.7640-35 area seems to protect immediate downside, which if broken could accelerate the slide immediately towards 0.7600 handle befor the pair eventually drops to test 100-day SMA support near 0.7575-70 region.

  • 1 Week
  • 1 Month
  • 1 Quarter

1 Week Avg Forecast 0.7501 100.0%74.0%12.0%01020304050607080901000  

  • 12% Bullish
  • 62% Bearish
  • 25% Sideways

Bias Bearish 1 Month Avg Forecast 0.7509 100.0%83.0%33.0%0304050607080901000  

  • 33% Bullish
  • 50% Bearish
  • 17% Sideways

Bias Bearish 1 Quarter Avg Forecast 0.7414 100.0%83.0%18.0%01020304050607080901000  

  • 18% Bullish
  • 65% Bearish
  • 18% Sideways

Bias Bearish

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