AUD/USD: stubborn bulls clinging to 0.76 area

AUD/USD is reluctant to drop the 0.76 handle after the last few sessions within the rally from 0.7506.

AUD/USD has been driven by commodity prices and the greenback in the main. 

A stronger US dollar has pressured the Aussie, but  commodity prices have been remaining resilient and risks of the RBA cutting rates cut has been fading enabling the Aussie to rebound. However, the focus remains on the Fed and Presidential elections. This week will hold Fed speakers and the last Presidential debate while markets are predicting a Clinton victory that has been supporting the greenback recently. 

For the day ahead, analysts at Westpac have noted that momentum is starting to switch to positive, offering an outlook for an immediate target 0.7690 (4 Oct high).

AUD/USD levels

The analysts at Westpac offer AUD/USD in a one-three month outlook: "While further gains to around 0.77 are possible during the month ahead, driven in part by the faltering US dollar and yield-chasing flows, the AUD is losing energy (perhaps a reflection of its declining yield advantage). By year end, there's a case for a correction towards 0.74 if the Fed tightens in December as we expect. (13 Sep)"

Meanwhile, AUD/USD recovered from the five-month support line at 0.7527where  below it lies the 2016 uptrend line at 0.7491. The September lows are  at 0.7443. The key downside target is 0.7146 May low and analysts at Commerzbank suggested that only an unexpected rise and daily chart close above the 0.7710/31 September highs would introduce scope to the .07836 April high (not favoured).



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