Australia: Real GDP forecasts largely unchanged at 3.0% in 2016 – NAB

Research Team at NAB, suggests that the real GDP forecasts for Australia are largely unchanged at 3.0% in 2016 and easing to 2.8% in 2017 and 2.6% in 2018.

Key Quotes

“The unexpectedly high settlement for Q4 coking coal prices will provide a boost to Australia’s terms of trade, nominal GDP and government revenues, but is unlikely to be sustained.

Business survey data is showing weakness in retail conditions, which implies some risks to our already moderate forecasts for real household consumption growth of 2¼-2½% in 2017 and 2018. The labour market outlook is key, but while we expect the unemployment rate to remain in its current range between 5½% and 5¾%, the recent softening in trend employment growth bears close watching.

House prices in Sydney and Melbourne have re-accelerated, which should prevent any further RBA cuts this year barring an exceptionally low Q3 CPI outcome in late October. Further cuts in 2017 remain likely.”

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