China: Credit expansion continues – BBH

Research Team at BBH, suggests that the main news from Asia was China's continued credit expansion as it continues at a stronger pace than economists expected. 

Key Quotes

“Aggregate financing rose CNY1.72 trillion (~$255 bln), up from CNY!.47 trillion in August.  The median forecast on Bloomberg was for a modest decline.  The increase in the aggregate figure took place in the traditional banking sector as opposed to shadow banking.  This is evident in the increase of yuan loans to CNY1.22 trillion from CNY949 bln.  The Bloomberg survey showed that economists had expected the shadow banks to have taken a greater market share. 

Although China has not exhausted monetary policy, it appears to be having a similar experience in terms of its money supply as high income countries.  While M1 is expecting rapidly (24.7% year-over-year in September, slowing slightly from 25.3% in August), what is actually getting into the economy is growing much slower (6.6% in September, the slowest pace in three months).  The immediate focus of Chinese policymakers is on reining in the housing market.  This will also encourage a stand pat monetary policy.”

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