For AUD/USD , while we await the RBA today, we will contend with key Chinese events which will impact AUD/USD to some extent ahead of main focus later on.
RBA preview – what to expect in AUD/USD?
China will release both NBS and Caixan Manufacturing and non manufacturing PMI for October
China PMIs have improved but are still showing broadly flat conditions. Employment remains a concern across the economy,” noted analysts at Westpac. However, from another opinion, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet has highlighted the PMI’s over the RBA should they hold, “
China will release its Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing PMI figures for October, which will probably affect the Aussie more than the RBA, should the Central Bank leave its policy unchanged as expected.” Either way, the data is not expected to veer off expectations as slightly above contraction (below 50) and inline with previous bar 0.1% for Caixan, so don’t expect any fireworks, or perhaps the biggest show of the day from the Pacific will come from Australia’s Melbourne cup?
AUD/USD levels to monitor
With current at 0.7606 of time of writing, with resistance ahead at 0.7621 (Daily Classic R1), on Aussie strength through 0.7650, 0.7700 and 25th October highs is first key barrier. “While further gains to around 0.77 are possible during the month ahead, driven in part by the faltering US dollar and yield-chasing flows, the AUD is losing energy (perhaps a reflection of its declining yield advantage),” argued analysts at Westpac, adding, “By year end, there’s a case for a correction towards 0.74 if the Fed tightens in December as we expect. (13 Sep)”. For now, next support to the downside can be found at 0.7609 (Daily Open), 0.7604 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.7602 (Daily Low), 0.7589 (Daily Classic PP) and 0.7588 (Weekly Low) and 0.7506 12th Oct low.
- 1 Week
- 1 Month
- 1 Quarter
1 Week Avg Forecast 0.7501
- 12% Bullish
- 62% Bearish
- 25% Sideways
Bias Bearish 1 Month Avg Forecast 0.7509
- 33% Bullish
- 50% Bearish
- 17% Sideways
Bias Bearish 1 Quarter Avg Forecast 0.7414
- 18% Bullish
- 65% Bearish
- 18% Sideways