Euro Looks to 3Q GDP Data to Revive Recovery

Talking Points:

The underperformed in overnight trade in a move that appeared corrective following Friday’s outsized advance. The traded lower as stocks firmed in Asian trade, undermining demand for the perennial anti-risk currency.

figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. News-flow out of the regional bloc has increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts in recent weeks. This suggests analysts’ models are underestimating the economy’s vigor and opens the door for upbeat surprises.

A pickup on the inflation front may pass with little fanfare considering its limited implications for near-term ECB monetary policy. A better-than-expected growth reading may speak to resilience in spite of the would-be cooling effects of uncertainty linked to the Brexit referendum, which may boost demand for EUR-denominated assets and echo positively for the single currency.

The spotlight then moves to September’s data. The Fed’s favored inflation gauge is seen putting core growth at 1.7 percent year-on-year, matching a two-year high. An upbeat print may boost rate hike bets and the , though follow-through could be limited ahead of this week’s announcement.

21:45

Building Permits (MoM) (SEP)

0.2%

-1.5%

23:50

Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP P)

0.0%

0.9%

1.3%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP P)

0.9%

1.9%

4.5%

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade (YoY) (SEP)

-1.9%

-1.8%

-2.2%

23:50

JPY

Retail Sales (MoM) (SEP)

0.0%

0.2%

-1.2%

23:50

JPY

Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales (SEP)

-3.2%

-2.7%

-3.6%

0:00

Melbourne Institute Inflation (MoM) (OCT)

0.2%

0.4%

0:00

AUD

Melbourne Institute Inflation (YoY) (OCT)

1.5%

1.3%

0:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (OCT)

38.4

42.4

0:00

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence (OCT)

24.5

27.9

0:01

Lloyds Business Barometer (OCT)

37

24

0:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (SEP)

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (SEP)

5.4%

5.5%

5.8%

2:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (SEP)

4.8%

5.3%

4:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (SEP)

1.4%

8.8%

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (SEP)

10.0%

5.20%

2.5%

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (SEP)

0.984m

0.949m

0.956m

5:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (SEP)

16.3%

13.8%

7:00

German Retail Sales (MoM) (SEP)

-1.4% (A)

-0.3%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (SEP)

0.4% (A)

3.8%

Medium

9:00

Total Sight Deposits

518.5b (A)

518.5b

Low

9:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits

451.9b (A)

451.3b

Low

9:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (SEP)

1.4b (A)

1.6b

Low

9:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (SEP)

3.2b (A)

3.1b

Low

9:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (SEP)

62.9k (A)

61.0k

Medium

9:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (SEP)

-0.4%

1.0%

Low

9:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (SEP)

6.2%

5.4%

Low

9:30

GBP

M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (SEP)

10.0%

11.2%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (OCT)

0.5%

0.4%

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (OCT A)

0.8%

0.8%

10:00

EUR

Eurozone GDP SA (QoQ) (3Q A)

0.3%

0.3%

10:00

EUR

Eurozone GDP SA (YoY) (3Q A)

1.6%

1.6%

1.0759

1.0858

1.0921

1.1020

1.1056

1.1155

1.1974

1.2072

1.2129

1.2227

1.2268

1.2366

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