Key U.S. data coming up – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered a preview for the next key data from the U.S. calender.

Key Quotes:

"Initial jobless claims: Initial jobless claims have remarkably trended lower in September, reaching near-historical lows. In the first week of October, jobless claims continued to fall and reached 246k, the lowest level since 24 November 1973. This downtrend suggests labor market conditions remain healthy and involuntary layoffs remain low. Consistent with the September NFIB survey, the trend suggests businesses are less willing to let current employees go as it has become increasingly difficult to find qualified workers for available positions. We expect initial jobless claims to remain steadily low. Market consensus for the week ending 15 October is 250k. 

Philly Fed Survey: The headline index from the report jumped to 12.8 in September from a reading of 2.0 in August, well above market expectations. The survey suggests an overall improvement in business activity, but the underlying details painted a somewhat subdued picture, which is consistent with details of the Empire State survey. For example, the shipments index dropped to -8.8 from 8.4, implying a slowdown in activity. Also, the index for the number of employees remained in negative territory, although it improved to -5.3 from -20 in August. The average workweek was -11.7, a small drop from -11.5. Given that the underlying details were broadly weak, we think that the headline index is bound to show some reversal. We forecast the Philly Fed headline to show a decline of 4.8 points to 8.0 in October (Consensus: 5.0). 

Existing home sales: Home sales softened again in August, falling 0.9% m-o-m to an annualized 5330k. Supply constraints may have slowed home sale activity. In fact, given the current pace of sales, the inventory of homes on the market would be sold in 4.6 months, a relatively slow pace. Moreover, incoming data on the existing home sales market remain soft. Pending home sales, which tend to lead existing home sales, declined 2.4% m-o-m in August. In addition, mortgage applications for home purchases fell 4.9% in August. Therefore, we forecast existing home sales to have fallen by 0.3% to an annualized 5313k in September (Consensus: 5350k)."

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