NAB Quarterly Business Survey: Ongoing recovery for the non-mining economy


Australia's NAB Q3 business confidence came at 5 vs 2 last, while business conditions deteriorated to 7 vs 11. The data has been eclipsed by the major miss in Australia's employment report though. 

NAB Quarterly Business Survey – September Quarter 2016

Leading indicators from the NAB Quarterly Business Survey tend to point to an ongoing recovery for the non-mining economy, at least in the near-term, although the momentum appears to have slowed for some series. Responding firms continue to indicate solid investment intentions, despite some pullback in capacity utilisation rates, which is encouraging, as is the improvement in expected labour demand. However, recent trends in retail have become a concern, and warrant close monitoring, with retail trading conditions turning negative. The Survey is still showing very subdued inflation measures, despite solid indicators of activity, which could signal yet another soft CPI outcome for Q3 – although the CPI will need to be very weak to prompt an additional cut to the cash rate from the RBA this year. 

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