Oil prices should stabilise in the second half of this year and rise in 2016 and 2017 as consumers respond to a period of much cheaper fuel, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Monday.
The survey of 34 analysts predicted North Sea Brent crude LCOc1 would average $59.20 a barrel in 2015, up from around $55 so far this year. The forecast is up just 20 cents from the projection in last month’s Reuters survey. [O/POLL]
Brent is expected to rise to $72.10 in 2016 and $78.70 in 2017, the poll showed.
Oil prices fell more than 60 percent between June 2014 and January, and although they have recovered a little since then, they are still around half their level a year ago.
This has encouraged motorists to make more use of their cars and let factories and other businesses boost fuel consumption.
London-based consultancy Energy Aspects expects world oil demand to rise by up to 1.5 million barrels per day this year. That’s double the rate of oil demand growth seen last year, according to the International Energy Agency.
“Strength is broad-based,” Energy Aspects analyst Virendra Chauhan told Reuters Global Oil Forum. “On-road diesel demand has continued at a stellar pace.”
Intesa Sanpaolo analyst Daniela Corsini agreed, saying the rise in consumption appeared to be worldwide.
“Global oil demand will surprise upwards, driven by the United States, China and emerging Asia,” Corsini said.
About Alfonso Esparza
Senior Currency Strategist, OANDA, Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, he established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto. Follow on Twitterand on his Google+ profile.