Quiet Start to Week has USD Focused on Fed, GBP on Brexit

Talking Points:

– remains rangebound – DXY will have a hard time running much higher without it.

– Expect more two-way volatility in GBP-crosses, relatively more than other pairs between now and March 2017.

– See the for the week of October 9 to October 14.

It’s Columbus Day in the United States today. However, only the bond market (SIFMA) is closed; equity markets ( and NYSE) will operate on a normal schedule today. Regardless of what markets are doing, because it is a federal holiday, US government agencies – including those that produce economic data statistics – are closed. Concurrently, it’s Thanksgiving Day in Canada; the economic calendar is barren for the developed North American economies today.

Once we move past the dual holidays in Canada and the United States, the calendar still remains admittedly boring until Wednesday afternoon, when the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its September 20-21 policy meeting. Given that the Fed issued a very neutral statement – keeping rates in check, downgrading its assessment of the US economy, but indicating it would hike rates at an upcoming meeting – there may be some tradable information revealed that could stir volatility.

Before then, however, there are a few thematic influences the market is grappling with. In order: the fallout to the resulting from the realization that a ‘Hard Brexit’ is coming (I felt like I was living in a twilight zone all summer with people saying Brexit wouldn’t impact the UK economy; the recent swoon in Cable has been a reaffirmation of the market’s sanity, in my opinion); the efficacy of the Bank of Japan’s easing program and whether or not this is leading to the ‘end game’ for the Japanese Yen; the interplay of US Presidential election concerns against a Federal Reserve desperate to hike rates, and how its impacting the US Dollar; and at the bottom of the list, the ….

See the video (above) for technical considerations in EUR/USD, , , , , , and the Index.

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— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

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