After a negative start, the greenback – tracked by the US Dollar Index – has recovered the smile following the opening bell in Euroland, returning to the 98.00 area.
US Dollar attention to data, Fedspeak
The index keeps navigating the area of 7-month highs above the 98.00 handle, always bolstered by rising expectations of a Fed’s move by year end. Furthermore, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool and based on Fed Funds futures prices, the probability of a rate hike by December is at 64%.
Collaborating with the upside, the yields in the 10-year benchmark remain in multi-month tops above 1.80% on Monday, extending the upbeat momentum.
In light of the latest CFTC report, USD speculative net longs have climbed to the highest levels since mid-June during the week ended on October 11, with longs at highest since early February.
On the data front, the NY Empire State manufacturing gauge is due later in the NA session followed by September’s Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization and the speech by FOMC’s VP S.Fischer on ‘Low Interests Rates’ at the Economic Club of New York Luncheon.
US Dollar relevant levels
The index is advancing 0.11% at 98.12 and a break above 98.59 (high Mar.3) would open the door to 99.95 (high Jan.21) and the 100.60 (high Dec.3). On the downside, the initial support aligns at 97.47 (low Oct.12) ahead of 96.33 (20-day sma) and finally 95.88 (200-day sma).