Research Team at Danske Bank, suggests that today we get the US retail sales figures for September and while growth in core retail sales (control group) was strong in Q2, it was slightly negative in both July and August.
“It is the first time there has been negative growth for two successive months post crisis. In September, we estimate core retail sales increased 0.4 % m/m. Even though 0.4 % m/m is quite strong looking at a single month, it will still leave the average monthly growth rate in Q3 below 0.1 % m/m, which is a weak signal for the Q3 GDP growth.
We estimate total (advance) retail sales increased 0.8 % m/m in September mainly due to increasing vehicle sales and higher gasoline prices.
Late Friday we also get the preliminary consumer confidence figures from the University of Michigan for October, where we expect it to stay in its current range. In September, both the Michigan and the Conference Board measures of consumer confidence increased underpinning that consumers are still optimistic.”