USD longs increased, JPY longs reduced – ANZ

Research Team at ANZ, lists down the CFTC speculative positioning data  for the week ending 11 October 2016.

Key Quotes

“USD bullishness extended to the third consecutive week with leveraged funds increasing net long USD positions by USD6.9bn, the largest weekly increase since August 2014. With this, overall net long USD positions stood at USD17.7bn, the highest since February this year. Price action post the cut-off date suggests a further build-up in long USD positions as strong retail sales data has strengthened the case for a December hike.

JPY saw the largest selling against the USD.  Funds reduced their net JPY longs by USD3.4bn to USD4bn. Policy divergence with an impending Fed hike has led to a fall in the JPY, continuing even after the cut-off date. Meanwhile, funds more than doubled their net short CHF positions by USD1.2bn to USD2bn.

Funds also increased their net short EUR and GBP positions, by USD2.2bn and USD0.3bn to USD15.6bn and USD6.5bn respectively. Further moves in EUR positioning will depend on the ECB meeting this week for any hint on QE tapering.

CAD and AUD were the only G10 currencies to see net buying against the USD. With this, net overall short CAD positions were pared to USD1.6bn and net long AUD positions were raised to USD2.2bn. NZD however saw net selling of USD0.3bn to take its overall net long position to USD1.6bn, on rate cut expectations by RBNZ in the November meeting.

After six straight weeks of net selling, funds turned into a net buyer of MXN as bets for a Trump win were pared after the second Presidential debate. Funds reduced their net MXN shorts by USD0.7bn, the largest since April 2016 to USD1.8bn. RUB and BRL saw little changes in positioning from the previous week.”

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