USD/JPY Exhaustion Shifts Focus to Uptrend Support

  • outlook constructive above 101.65
  • Updatedtargets & invalidation levels
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we highlighted the risk of a washout lower in USDJPY with our focus weighted to the topside while above the August low-day close at . The subsequent low in price & reversal higher off this region has given shape to this advance with this ascending pitchfork off the lows keeping the broader focus higher while above confluence support at . A key resistance range is eyed at where the 61.8% retracement, the 100% extension & a pair of median-lines converge.

The pair has continued to trade within the confines of the embedded ascending median-line structure featured in scalp report and we’ve continued to track this slope on SB Trade Desk. The advance has taken out targets into the -handle & the immediate focus remains higher while above . A break below this level would suggest a larger correction is underway with such a scenario eyeing & key support at . From a trading standpoint, I’ll be looking to fade weakness into structural support with a breach higher targeting the upper median-line parallels at & . A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of 28-32 pips per scalp.

With NY Fed President William Dudley as well as Kansas City Fed President Esther George (2016 voting-members) scheduled to speak ahead of the Minutes tomorrow, the fresh batch of commentary may spark increased volatility in USD/JPY especially as Chair Janet Yellen takes to the wires on Friday.On the data front, the key event risks are also up on Friday with U.S. Retail Sales as well as the U. of Michigan confidence survey on tap. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount.

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—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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