US Dollar Index rose to 2-day highs near 94.20 ahead of data

18.10.2021

• DXY starts the week on a positive note above 94.00.
• US 10-year yields cling to gains around 1.60% on Monday.
• Industrial Production, NAHB Index, Fedspeak come up next.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback vs. a bundle of its main competitors, begins Monday’s session on a positive footing around 94.20.

US Dollar Index looks to data, yields

The index regains composure and upside traction after three consecutive daily pullbacks, including the corrective downside from new 2021 highs past 94.50 recorded on October 12.
The move higher in the index comes in tandem with the recovery in US yields, where the front end of the curve flirts with the 0.42% level and the belly surpasses the 1.60% yardstick so far on Monday.

The dollar, in the meantime, appears well supported by solid prospects for a tapering announcement as early as at the November meeting, while Fed speakers have been also intensifying their support to this view particularly since the September FOMC event.
In the US data sphere, Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures are due later in the NA session seconded by Capacity Utilization, the NAHB Index and TIC Flows.

What to look for around USD

The index corrected lower following new 2021 highs past 94.50 on October 12, although the bearish move has so far met decent contention near 93.70. Supportive Fedspeak, an anticipated start of the tapering process, higher yields and the rising probability that high inflation could linger for longer continue to prop up the sentiment around the buck for the time being and keep sustaining the case for the resumption of the uptrend in DXY in the relatively short-term horizon.
Key events in the US this week: industrial Production, NAHB Index (Monday) – Building Permits, Housing Starts (Tuesday) – Initial Claims, Philly Fed Index, CB Leading Index, Existing Home Sales (Thursday) – Flash Manufacturing PMI (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Persistent uncertainty around Biden’s multi-billion Build Back Better plan. US-China trade conflict under the Biden’s administration. Tapering speculation vs. economic recovery. Debt ceiling debate. Geopolitical risks stemming from Afghanistan.

US Dollar Index relevels

Now, the index is gaining 0.10% at 94.16 and a break above 94.56 (2021 high Oct.12) would open the door to 94.74 (monthly high Sep.25 2020) and then 94.76vant le (200-week SMA). On the flip side, the next down barrier emerges at 93.75 (weekly low October 14) followed by 93.67 (monthly low Oct.4) and finally 92.98 (weekly low Sep.23).

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